DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF COAL RESERVE ESTIMATION: AN ADAPTIVE METHOD FOR DEPOSITS WITH COMPLEX TECTONICS (CASE STUDY OF KYRGYZSTAN)

Abstract

The article adresses a critical scientific and technical problem: improving the reliability of geological and surveying support for mining operations at geologically complex deposits in the coal industry of the Kyrgyz Republic. Due to the intensive tectonic disturbance in the Tien Shan, traditional two-dimensional geometrization methods fail to provide an adequate interpretation of seam morphology, which leads to significant discrepancies between exploration data and actual production.

The authors have developed and scientifically substantiated an adaptive 3D modeling methodology based on a synergistic approach: the integration of high-resolution Earth remote sensing (ERS) data and modern discrete kriging algorithms. The study describes in detail the process of forming a "digital structural framework", where the results of satellite imagery interpretation (lineaments, fault outcrops) act as rigid structural barriers. These barriers enable an algorithmic limitation of the geostatistical interpolation influence zone, preventing mathematical "smoothing" of coal seams in areas of tectonic ruptures and faults. This ensures the accurate representation of mineral morphology under complex geodynamic conditions.

In the course of the study, a comparative analysis of standard triangulation methods and the proposed adaptive method was conducted using the example of seam "F" of the Sulyukta brown coal deposit. It was established that the use of the developed methodology allows for more accurate localization of thinning zones and fold hinges, which directly affects the overall industrial safety of underground mining operations. The validation results confirmed a significant increase in the accuracy of predictive models: the error in determining reserve volumes and seam thickness decreased by 12-15% compared to traditional methods. The obtained results are of significant practical importance for subsoil users, providing a reliable basis for the transition to automated long-term mining planning and a radical reduction in operational mineral losses under extremely complex geomechanical conditions. The proposed integrated approach lays the foundation for the formation of a comprehensive high-precision digital twin of a coal enterprise and the improvement of the rational subsoil development strategies.